# Potential and Probability as Polar Opposites

Potential and Probability are another set of words we use often, but not necessarily with complete understanding of what they mean.

Potential is the undefined and unrealised (not made real) set of all possible variables and states of a given problem or argument. If I fire an un-aimed arrow into the air, there are a great many variables which will govern the final resting place of that arrow, many of which are logical, and many of which that are not, but are still potentially viable and must be taken into account before a final solution is achieved.

Probability is the mathematical distillation of all of those potential outcomes into a singular result, the most probable observed outcome to a given set of variables in a given argument. The realisation of probability occurs in this example where and when the arrow is observed to land.

Just some of the variables which multiply the potential outcomes in this example argument (the name in science for a given challenge or problem) are:

- The bow: how strong it is, how powerful it is during release, if the string has much wind resistance, does one arm have more strength or integrity than the other…
- The arrow: how heavy it is, how flexible it is, how much wind resistance it has, how much cross wind drag it has, the condition of the fletching…
- The shooter: was the arrow mounted properly and centred in the bow’s sting. Was the bow drawn fully, did the release shake the bow, was the bow held still on release…
- The environment: air density, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, changes to wind or air qualities at different heights, rain…

Now add to this list of obvious variables many other possible ones:

- Was the shooter in a cave or under vegetation cover, was a duck or low flying aircraft passing overhead, did the arrow break under acceleration, did the arrow hit a butterfly, did the arrow get hit by lightning in flight…

‘Whoa’, I hear you say, ‘those are some pretty way out variables!’ Well yes, they are. But to determine the probability of a thing accurately, one must take into account ALL ACTIVE VARIABLES. This is what probability is, mathematically.

To determine the probability of a thing, one must take into account all possible variations and then determine the most mathematically probable solution which is stronger than all others. One solution might be that the arrow hit a plane and was carried hundreds of miles away. If that variable failed to occur though, it is ‘overtaken’ by a more probable solution. This happens over and over until a single outcome is the strongest probability, predicting the actual outcome if everything has been done accurately. Remember our discussion about the accuracy of the standard model? Just imagine how good the model is already and yet it still has gaps!

Probability resolves potentials. Potentials allow probability. A single photon in a completely empty space-time continuum will have no potential as there are no variables with which that photon can interact. It just exists as a singularity, without velocity, mass or energy as there is nothing else to measure those things against. This state is of course, impossible, but serves to illustrate the point.

Lets offer a real world argument. How likely is it to throw a pair of coins so that both landed coins exhibit heads? For the sake of argument, both coins landed on the table and came down to reveal a clean result of either heads or tails, so edge throws are not in this example, despite being 'possible'. Each coin has the potential to land showing either a Head (H) or Tail (T). The possible combinations of both coins are therefore: H-H; H-T; T-H or T-T. The chance of throwing two heads is 25%, or 1 in 4. In many cases folks will not count the potentials of H-T and T-H as two distinct and different potentials, thinking instead that the chances of two heads are one in three, or 33% (casinos make their money on this principle).

In Summary: Until all variables (potentials) are taken into account and accounted for, probability can not accurately be calculated. Probability resolves potential(s) into a singular outcome. Without potential, probability can not exist. Without probability, potentials can't exist. Potential and probability are the polar opposites of each other. Each cancels the other out in a linear timeline, but neither can exist without the other.